Understanding Uganda’s Election results 2016.

Dr Kiggundu announced results of 26,223 PS (polling stations) and leaving out 1,787 polling stations.

With 15,277,198 registered voters, a PS has on average 545 voters.

1,787 PS on average have 974,664 registered voters with an assumption that this number can go up or down depending on which districts are affected most. (Kampala has 1,338 with only 1,014,294 voters so u can see what I mean).

The left out voters constitute a 6.4% of the registered voters that if am to borrow Kiggundu’s statement (Giving this number to Besigye wouldn’t affect the winner), adding the 6.4% to KB would bring his percentage to averagely 42% and bringing Museveni‘s to 53%.

Now here is the trick that comes with numbers.

If I really want to have a serious effect on those numbers, I only take out districts and polling stations that can give KB a serious margin. It’s at this point that I want you to look at the most affected districts in eliminated PSs.

Jinja only reported 11 out 399 PS leaving 388 PSs out

Rukungiri only reported 3 out of 276 PS leaving out 273

Kyenjojo only reported 60 out of 337 PS leaving out 277

Kampala left out 162, Kabale left out 190, Wakiso left out 119.

Jinja, Kampala, Wakiso and Kabale and high populous district that can project eliminated voters to be of significance and also believed to give opposition strength to bring down the 60% to a below 55% at a fair level.

Questions.

1.Why did Kiggundu’s commission leave out these PSs? 
2.Was it a strategic move to keep the NRM house happy that they won with a high percentage by eliminating those PSs where KB is believed to have performed good?

3.Were they trying to catch up with NRM opinion polls of a 70%?

4.Who is to blame for this level of incompetence at the district level?

"From Dr Kiggundu’s released results, we shall explore all angles; all corners from those few numbers till we get the answers we so much desire.Which districts had the highest percentage increase in registered voters since 2011?"

Amudat had the highest increase with a 72% (21,039 in Y11 and 36,203 in Y16) and this district submitted in all its PS( polling stations). In this District Museveni had a whopping 279% increase in his votes from 6,658 in Y11 to 25,262 in Y16. The closest contender Besigye lost ground to this district he won in 2011 from 13,262 votes in Y11 to a paltry 521 votes (yes u read that right 521 votes) in Y16, contributing to a 96% decline in that district.

Buvuma came in second with 44% increase in registered voters yet even this district, Museveni won it and he had a 75% increase in his votes compared to those of Y11. Yes even the inaccessible Buvuma submitted in all its PSs to EC in time.

This pattern continues for 15 districts in ascending order with the highest number of increased registered voters and all these 15, Museveni won them. The Likes of Kyegwegwa (43%), Buhweju (38%) Kole (33%), Kibaale (32%) Apac (32%) plus some more, and in all these 15 leading districts (in the %ge number of registered voters) Museveni won in all of them.

The irony with the above districts all submitted in their PSs or at least they were left with 1 or 2 PSs.

Museveni won in all of the above districts with a resounding victory and this is the case with the top 15 districts which had a higher percentage increase in registered voters.

One thing with numbers, they speak a lot, and the patterns can be found with further scrutiny. Are these patterns a well-orchestrated plan to make these districts have a higher number increase in registered voters who can favor Museveni in tallies or is it a mere coincidence?

Was it a well thought strategy, that in the above 7 districts, 4 of them (Amudat, Apac, Buvuma Kibaale, 2 of which are in national parks) are marked hard to access for most of their villages, which gives an upper hand to change results and also a hard time for opposition to man up the results? Or it’s just a coincidence.

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